Market Forecasts

VXX and XIV Exchange Traded Notes – A fantastic investment alternative

Investing in volatility ETN’s has been made extremely easy and can be done by an average investor without special software. To explain the concept of volatility ETN’s in detail in this blog is pretty much impossible, so this is just a quick overview. For the full story please watch this recording of my presentation from Wednesday the 1st of February. It shows some extraordinary results for 2016 which are continuing into 2017.

The VXX and XIV are Exchange Traded Notes (ETN) that may be used to trade up and downward movements in the VIX volatility index. The VIX index itself is not tradable. The VIX has a negative correlation to the S&P 500 which shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility. Volatility is mean-reverting, unlike stocks. So trading the VXX and XIV is based on market volatility, with returns not correlated with investments of stocks in general. That makes trading volatility based ETN a great additional strategy for long term investors looking for diversification and is perfect for SMSF accounts as well.

VXX futuresThere is something unique which makes trading volatility based ETNs so brilliant. The primary engine of yield within VXX and XIV is roll yield. Roll yield is the yield that a futures investor captures when their futures contract converges to the spot price. In a backwardated futures market the price rolls up to the spot price, so the roll yield is positive, whereas when the market is in contango the price rolls down to the spot price, so the roll yield is negative (see Wikipedia).

Positive roll yield can capture abnormal gains for those investors who understand and can apply the concepts. There is a lot more to this story than can be conveyed in a blog article. For those investors looking for a way to enhance annual returns please follow the link below for a sixty minute recording which will offer a full explanation. The recording will cover the explanation of positive and negative roll yield, term structure and a complete investment process with no information withheld: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/recording/7377488107303756290.

Questions welcome. paul@options21.com.au

Building a Momentum-based Stock Selection System

With a new administration and new economic policies being implemented in the US, markets are forecast to continue in a strong bull run in 2017. This is the time to get ready to take advantage of a long overdue rally.

Two of the most important concepts taught in our investment course are selecting the correct sectors for out-performance and the benefits of hedging in periods of distribution.

Both concepts are hard at work on my own account. The image below shows the progress of my account since the start of this Australian financial year July 16 – Jan 17 (the blue line). We believe the market is now in a period of likely distribution and it is time to consider hedging your portfolio.

You can already observe the divergence between my account and the market, which – if correct – should become more pronounced in the coming weeks. The red and green lines demonstrate divergence due to hedging. The heavy orange line demonstrates surges in out-performance.

Any comments or questions please feel free to contact me: paul@options21.com.au.

Cumulative Benchmark Comparison of my Account